The hottest prediction is that the steel price in

2022-08-15
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Prediction: in the first week after the festival, steel prices may have a good start

during the Spring Festival, the downstream construction sites were basically shut down, the demand for steel was light, and the transaction was almost zero. The spot market showed a pattern of price without market. According to the latest survey data, as of February 21, the average price of 20mm deformed steel bars nationwide was 4134 yuan/ton, unchanged from that before the holiday

Table 1: price changes before and after the Spring Festival

in terms of inventory, the estimated total inventory of thread in 35 major cities across the country is 8.016 million tons, an increase of 1.895 million tons compared with that before the festival; The total stock of wire rod was 2.925 million tons, an increase of 999000 tons compared with that before the holiday. Looking at the changes of social inventory in the past three years, the growth rate in 2018 ranked first

Table 2: changes in social inventory before and after the Spring Festival

the specific operation of the country's major markets is as follows

East China

[Shanghai region] due to the early closure and late return to the market, there is basically no transaction during the holidays, and the price is stable. The time for merchants to return to the market is around the tenth day of the lunar new year, and the warehouse is started around the seventh day of the lunar new year, so the inventory has increased to a certain extent. According to statistics, in the current construction steel inventory in Shanghai, there are 396000 tons of deformed steel, 92900 tons of wire rod and 146900 tons of spiral rod, a total of 635800 tons, with a relatively limited increase. Among them, QA wire rod increased by about 30000 tons, but mainly due to wire drawing material resources. Deformed steel XSZ increased by about 10000 tons, and xfg increased by about 10000 tons, mainly due to the arrival of goods in the festival, and the increment of other brands was less. In terms of warehouses, songtie is about to be saturated, the wood is saturated, Blum is about to enter a saturated state, and the iron barge warehouse, which is mainly used for Northern timber, is about to be saturated. No significant changes have been seen in other non mainstream warehouses. On the whole, the market will resume trading at the beginning of March, and the trading atmosphere will recover quickly. Although the local construction steel inventory has increased significantly year-on-year, the concentration is not high, and the sales pressure is limited. Taking into account the factors that the profit of winter storage resources is acceptable, the cash out behavior in the market cannot be ruled out, and the market is expected to rise steadily in the week after the holiday

[Zhejiang region] traders generally store in winter during the Spring Festival this year. Due to the late Spring Festival, Zhejiang's overall construction efforts are relatively large, and the downstream construction sites may start rapidly. It is expected that the work will be gradually and quickly resumed from February 26. During the festival, all steel mills in Zhejiang stopped production, and only Zhejiang wt commissioned equipment, and most of the steel mills' inventory was 0. In terms of inventory, due to the limited inventory capacity of the warehouse in Hangzhou, the current dock inventory is expected to be 600000 tons, the current number of ships to be unloaded at the dock is about 180, and the number of ships of construction steel is expected to be, and it is expected that there will be 10000 tons at the port in one to two weeks later. At present, the inventory in Ningbo is about 120000 tons, and the overall resource increase is not much. The late arrival is estimated to be after the 10th day of the month; At present, the wharf inventory in Wenzhou is about 100000 tons, only two boats are waiting to be unloaded, and there are not many arrival resources in the later stage; The inventory in Taizhou is 180000 tons, and there is no large amount of goods arrived in the later stage. On the whole, the current inventory in Zhejiang is lower than the pre holiday expectation, the traders' mentality is good, and the downstream resumption of work may be faster. It is expected that the market price will continue to rise after the full opening of the market on January 11

[Jiangxi region] during the Spring Festival, the overall growth of market inventory was normal. Due to the reduction of Honggang warehouse, most of the warehouse resources were transferred to Changbei and Gangcheng warehouses, resulting in the full inventory of these two warehouses. On the whole, the market inventory is rising normally, and the subsequent inventory will continue to accumulate. It is expected that the total inventory of building materials in Nanchang this year will be higher than that in previous years, about 500000 tons. It is understood that the production of the three major steel mills (XG, ng, PG) in the province is normal, and there is no maintenance, shutdown and other related production reduction. The inventory of steel mills has increased compared with the normal period. The FD inventory is 20000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared with that before the festival, the XG inventory is 91000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons, and the PG inventory is 22000 tons. Market traders are mostly concentrated on the seventh and eighth day of the lunar new year. The holiday is not over, and everyone is still immersed in the festive Festival. Therefore, businesses have no obvious anxiety or optimism

[Jiangsu region] the market operates smoothly during the Spring Festival. At present, the mainstream quotation of the first-line steel plant is maintained at about 3950 yuan/ton, and the third-line resource is yuan/ton. At present, it is still closed, and it is expected that the market will start business in the beginning of August. It is understood that construction sites are generally started earlier this year, and market demand will be released faster than in previous years, which is better than the post holiday market. According to incomplete statistics, due to logistics problems, the inventory growth rate in each market is lower than expected. At present, the construction steel inventory in the eight leading markets is expected to be about 650000 tons, of which the inventory growth in Nanjing and Xuzhou is relatively obvious. However, during the Spring Festival, the delivery of steel mills is slow, and there is a large inventory backlog. According to incomplete statistics, the current in plant inventory of Jiangsu leading steel mills is more than 1.1 million tons, but most of them have been sold, but they have not been shipped out. At present, the steel mills do not have any shipping pressure. It is expected that the logistics and transportation will return to normal from the beginning of August 8, and the inventory will be gradually transferred to the market. The market is expected to rise slightly after the holiday

[Shandong region] during the Spring Festival, the merchants in Shandong market are basically closed, and the spot market price is generally stable. At present, the mainstream quotation in Laiwu Iron and steel market is yuan/ton. According to the survey statistics, up to now, the inventory of Shandong society is about 1.193 million tons, a significant increase of 475000 tons compared with that before the holiday. The inventory of leading steel mills in Shandong Province was 325000 tons, a slight increase over that before the holiday. Most of the downstream key points can be released after the Lantern Festival. Compared with previous years, the pressure on the upstream port after the year was not high. Due to the centralized release of winter storage intention in the first half of the year, part of the pressure on the steel plant was diverted to the market. On the whole, the market is intensely bullish after the holiday, and it is expected that the short-term price will be mainly bullish

[Anhui region] during the Spring Festival in Anhui market, businesses are basically closed. Some downstream terminals do not take holidays to meet the construction period, and they also have inventory before the festival. The spot market price is generally stable. The opening time of the market this year is generally ahead of last year. Large traders start work on the seventh day of the first day of the month, and most downstream start work on the fifteenth day of the first month. According to the survey and statistics, the inventory of Hefei society is about 350000 tons so far, which has increased significantly compared with that before the holiday. The inventory of Mg plant is 85000 tons, and the inventory of MCJ plant 1 can be placed on the outer circle of the oil cylinder to find the degree of 47000 tons according to the vertical and horizontal positions and degree directions of the base. The inventory of the leading steel mills in the province continues to increase compared with that before the festival. The agents involved in the insurance are expected to bring all the goods back to the warehouse next week. The overall demand is expected to start after the 15th day of the first month. The overall mentality of businesses is cautious and optimistic. It is expected that the local market price will be stable and strong after the festival

South China

[Guangzhou region] most traders in Guangzhou market started work from the eighth day to the tenth day of the first day of the lunar new year, and the inter Festival price remained about RMB/ton, and the merchants were still optimistic about the mainstream view of the post Festival market. In terms of steel mills, the inventory of local leading steel mills in Guangdong increased slightly after the holiday, with an increase of 0 Million tons, of which SG was affected by the pre holiday accident. At present, No. 7 blast furnace is still in shutdown, and the production line is not saturated. In terms of inventory, the arrival of foreign materials in the local province is concentrated around the Spring Festival, and the social inventory is expected to be close to 2million tons, so the overall inventory pressure is large

[Guangxi region] most businesses in the local market began to return to the market on the eighth day of the lunar new year. The price of mainstream resources in Nanning market before the festival was 4310 yuan/ton, and the social inventory was about 78000 tons, an increase of about 30000 tons compared with that before the Festival. It is reported that most businesses are bullish on the market after the opening of the market when the inventory in the local market is acceptable. In terms of steel plants, the leading steel plants are in normal production, and there is no maintenance on holidays. LG's production line was fully opened during the festival. The inventory of Liugang logistics park is now about 240000 tons, an increase of 120000 tons compared with the inventory before the festival, and the current thread is about 190000 tons. During the Spring Festival, the factory distributes goods every two days, and the quantity of goods distributed in the last two days has only begun to increase. On the whole, Liugang raised the ex factory price by 30 yuan/ton on the first day of the new year, but the market demand has not recovered after the festival. It is expected that the market price or the mainstream will rise slightly after the opening of the market

[Haikou area] traders are generally still on vacation, and most of them return to the market successively from the eighth day of the lunar new year to the Lantern Festival. It is understood that the wharf starts work on the eighth day of the ninth lunar month. At present, the port resources are close to 150000 tons, and the market inventory was about 350000 tons before the year. It is expected that the market inventory will exceed 500000 tons one to two weeks after the opening of the market. However, due to the sharp reduction in demand caused by the government's suspension of coastal projects before the festival, whether and when to resume work after the festival is still uncertain, which requires continuous attention. Other projects should also be resumed after the Lantern Festival at the earliest. After the festival, the price trend of Hainan market will fluctuate with the prices of the surrounding markets

[Fuzhou area] the steel plants in the province are in full production during the Spring Festival, and the arrival resources of materials from other provinces are about 70000 tons. The total inventory of building materials in the province is 510000 tons according to the statistics on the 8th before the festival. It is expected that the total inventory of building materials in the province may reach about 1.2 million tons within a week or two after the opening of the market. However, at present, the resources of agents are basically empty in January. Currently, there is only one month of planned volume pressure, and the relative pressure is small. Therefore, the mentality of businesses is still relatively optimistic. Most of them expect that there should be room for market prices to rise from the end of February to the first ten days of March

central and southern China

[Wuhan] most businesses in the market began to work after the 8th day of the lunar new year. Due to the positive stock of businesses before the festival, most of them are cautious and optimistic about the price trend after the festival, and some of them have increased a lot. In terms of inventory, 312200 tons before the holiday. According to the arrival plan during the holiday, according to incomplete statistics, up to now, the inventory of building materials in Wuhan has increased to about 392600 tons, and some resources still need to be unloaded at the port. It is expected that the inventory level will maintain an increasing trend in the week after the holiday. In addition, the expected commencement of downstream terminals will determine the market rhythm. Wuhan building materials prices may have a good start after the festival

[Zhengzhou area] during the Spring Festival, the transaction of Zhengzhou building materials market basically stagnated, and the current price is basically the same as that before the festival. Now the price of Zhengzhou first-line thread is yuan/ton, and the price of second and third-line thread is yuan/ton. At present, the market is still relatively deserted, with only a small number of businesses returning to the market, and most businesses are scheduled to officially start work on the eighth day of the Lunar New Year and later. In terms of arrival, there are many businesses locking goods in the local market before the festival, but there is no obvious arrival in the market during the Spring Festival due to the freight holiday. It is expected that after the eighth day of the lunar new year, the market will start to arrive in large quantities after businesses start working one after another. From the perspective of inventory, due to the small market arrival during the Spring Festival, the total inventory of construction steel in the four main building materials warehouses in Zhengzhou is about 480000 tons, which is only a small increase of tons compared with that before the Spring Festival. In terms of market mentality, since the steel demand restrained by environmental protection at the end of last year is expected to usher in a centralized release after the Spring Festival, and the weather will gradually warm after the Spring Festival, most businesses are bullish on post holiday prices at present

[Changsha region] in terms of inventory, 168000 tons before the festival, and about 278000 tons so far. Since the port has not yet worked, the punching force required for the hot forming process of RPET will increase by 10%, and the inventory not counted in the port is about 10000 tons. It is expected that the inventory level will continue to increase in the week after the festival. In terms of mentality, businesses are actively stocking before the festival and cautiously optimistic about the post Festival. Since most local traders began to work after the eighth day of the lunar new year, the construction of downstream terminals was about after the Lantern Festival. Prices may rise after the holiday

southwest region

[Chongqing region] during the Spring Festival, downstream work stoppages and holidays, demand stagnated, and there was no transaction in the market. During the Spring Festival, the social inventory in Chongqing continued to increase, mainly railway and riverside resources. At present, the social inventory of deformed steel bar is about 370000 tons, and the social inventory of wire coil is about 140000 tons, an increase of about 180000 compared with that before the holiday. A large number of winter storage resources still arrive in the short term. It is expected that the total amount will not be less than 100000 by the end of February. Given that there are many merchants with concentrated resources, and the market should flatten or straighten the test materials

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