The hottest prediction is that the hurricane threa

2022-08-12
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It is predicted that the hurricane threat will ease and the international oil price will fall seasonally

on the first trading day in September, meteorologists reduced the threat to the hurricane season this year. The seasonal decline in abundant inventory and demand forced the oil price to fall below $70 a barrel, the lowest level in 70 days. At the close of Friday, October light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were $69.19 a barrel, down $1.07 from the previous trading day; October Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange were $69.15, down $1.10; October heating oil futures in New York fell 4.37 cents to 196.74 cents per gallon; Gasoline futures in October closed at 173.44 cents per gallon, down 4.87 cents; Rbob gasoline futures in October closed at 178.42 cents per gallon, down 1.90 cents from the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange September diesel futures closed at $630.00 per ton, down $4.75 from the previous trading day

oil prices are pressured by abundant U.S. oil inventories and expectations of a weaker hurricane in the U.S. Gulf region, where oil and gas production accounts for 1/4 of the total U.S. production. Analysts believe that U.S. inventories are already abundant, and the hurricane season has not caused the same impact as last year, while the uncertainty of the Iranian issue has been reflected in the premium of crude oil futures

gasoline demand fell in September, and hurricane Beckman said when talking about xpressn lux that the possibility of threat was also reduced, so it is expected that gasoline prices in the United States may fall significantly. Gasoline inventories in the United States have been 2.6% higher than the five-year average. Since the beginning of August, the retail price of gasoline in the United States has fallen by 7%, and the price of gasoline futures has also fallen sharply to the lowest point since March, and is nearly 30% lower than the same period last year

in a report on Friday, the U.S. hurricane research team once again lowered its prediction of the seasonal impact of Atlantic hurricanes, pointing out that there were 13 tropical storms this year, and 5 turned into hurricanes

however, Eoin O'callaghan, an analyst at BNP Paribas, said that despite a bearish week, the crude oil market could not easily fall below $70 a barrel. In the risk environment of geopolitical turbulence and hurricanes, it is difficult for oil prices to finally remain below $70 a barrel. However, the crude oil price lacks the support of the refined oil market, and the inventories of crude oil, gasoline and distillate oil in the United States are very high

Hiroyuki Kikukawa, deputy general manager of the research department of Tokyo mercantile futures brokerage Co., Ltd., believes that the current crude oil price will continue for a period of time. Oil prices are unlikely to soar because of abundant inventories in the United States unless the situation in Iran leads to supply disruptions

the focus of the international oil market is still Iran's rejection of the resolution of the United Nations Security Council requiring it to suspend nuclear power, the Nigerian trade union plans to strike, the U.S. gasoline and crude oil inventories unexpectedly rise, and BP plans to restore the production of Alaska oil fields in advance. Bad and good news crisscrossed, and international crude oil futures fluctuated around $70 a barrel. At the end of the peak of oil demand, the weak fundamentals and tense geopolitical situation have a different impact on the oil market

although the United States tends to impose economic and diplomatic sanctions on Iran immediately, the Russian Foreign Minister doubts whether it can soon reach an agreement on punishing Iran for rejecting the UN Security Council resolution. He said that based on past experience, we cannot finally reach an agreement, which will enter a dead end

however, market participants believe that the current crude oil price has absorbed the impact of Iran's refusal to stop uranium enrichment activities. After the International Atomic Energy Agency released the report that Iran has not stopped uranium enrichment activities, it is still expected that the market will not turn dramatically quickly. Analysts believe that no country is interested in military sanctions, which will take months to decide. Therefore, Iran will not take the initiative to stop crude oil exports in the near future, let alone threaten crude oil shipping in the Hormuz Strait

since the beginning of this year, violence has continued in Nigeria's Niger Delta, resulting in a quarter reduction in the country's crude oil supply. After oil workers were kidnapped and even killed in August, the country's oil union decided to hold a warning strike. Nigeria is the largest oil exporter in Africa and the sixth largest oil exporter of OPEC

an official of Kuwait's state-owned oil company said that the country plans to increase its daily crude oil production by 1.4 million barrels in China's plastic machinery market by 2020. A total of three projects under construction in the northern and western regions are expected to increase the daily volume of crude oil in the country from the current 2.6 million barrels to 4million barrels. Although the oil price is too high and the quality is difficult to meet the needs of refineries, some analysts believe that the total demand for crude oil in the Middle East may increase rather than decrease. Before 2010, the Asia Pacific region was still highly dependent on 6 Absolutely stop experimenting with explosive Middle Eastern crude oil

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