Lack of positive aluminum price in the hottest mac

2022-08-06
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The lack of positive macro aluminum price will still test the key support level.

content abstract:

from the macro perspective: most of the recent economic data released by China and the euro zone are weaker than expected, intensifying investors' concern about the prospects for economic recovery in these two regions. Relatively speaking, the U.S. economy has advantages over other major economies in the world, but this may make the Federal Reserve slow down its bond purchase ahead of schedule. Pay close attention to the macro-economic data released in June and the two-phase construction Reserve meeting held by the Federal Reserve on June. If most of the economic data released by China and Europe and the U.S. manufacturing data are still less than expected, or if investors are worried that the Federal Reserve will discuss slowing down the bond purchase plan at this meeting, and the Federal Reserve does have such a discussion at this meeting, the metal market will be under pressure. In terms of the industry, the short-term oversupply situation in the aluminum market is difficult to be significantly improved, and the aluminum inventory is still high, which still puts pressure on the aluminum price. On the whole, the aluminum price in June may still test the key support level below, with Lun aluminum supporting the line of $1800/ton and Shanghai aluminum supporting the line of $14500/ton

I. market review

in may, the internal and external aluminum prices showed a narrow shock adjustment trend. Shanghai aluminum mainly operated in the yuan/ton range, which was suppressed by the weak macro environment and overcapacity in the aluminum market. The aluminum price lacked rebound momentum, but the 14500 strong support limited the falling space of Shanghai aluminum

II. Macro analysis

(I) the U.S. economy has advantages over other major economies in the world. From the economic operation data released in April this month, the U.S. economic data is still strong on the whole, while most of the economic data released by China and the euro zone are weaker than expected, indicating that the U.S. economy still has advantages over major economies such as China and Europe

US data: US ism manufacturing PMI fell to 50.7 in April from 51.3 in March, the lowest since December last year. The real GDP of the United States increased at an annualized quarterly rate of 2.5% in the first quarter, less than expected, and increased by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. The growth rate of us non-agricultural employment in April was slightly higher than expected. The data of the previous two months were significantly revised up, and the unemployment rate fell further. The data showed that US non-agricultural employment in April increased by 165000, with an expected increase of 145000; In March, the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 138000 after revision, and the initial value was 88000; In February, it was revised to increase by 332000, the highest since May 2010, and the initial value increased by 268000; The US unemployment rate continued to decline in April, falling to 7.5%, the lowest level since December2008, and is expected to be 7.6%. US retail sales in April rose by 0.1% month on month (MOM) and are expected to decline by 0.3%. The previous value was revised to decline by 0.5% and the initial value decreased by 0.4%. In April, the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States decreased by 0.5%, which is expected to decrease by 0.2%. In March, it was revised from an increase of 0.4% to an increase of 0.3%. Us durable goods orders in April surged by 3.3% month on month, with an expected growth of 1.5%. In March, the data were revised to decrease by 5.9%, and the initial value decreased by 6.9%. In April, the total number of new housing starts in the United States fell to 853000 on an annualized basis, a decline far greater than expected and the worst performance since November 2012. The total number of construction permits in the United States in April was 1017000, which is expected to be 945000, compared with the previous value of 902000; In April, the construction permit increased by 14.3% month on month, and the previous value decreased by 3.9%. The total number of existing home sales in the United States in April was 4.97 million, slightly lower than the expected 4.99 million, but the highest level since November 2009. The previous value was revised to 4.94 million, and the initial value was 4.92 million. The total number of new home sales in the United States in April was 454000, the second highest level since July 2008, and higher than the expected 425000. The previous value was revised to 444000, and the initial value was 417000

China data: in April, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.6, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In April, China's consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year. In April, China's industrial producer prices (PPI) fell by 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the 2.2% drop previously expected by the market. The added value of China's industries above designated size increased by 9.3% year-on-year in April, faster than 8.9% in March, slightly lower than the median value of the survey. Four months after the approval of "Shandong Peninsula National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone", the monthly fixed asset investment increased by 20.6% year-on-year, and the median value of the survey was 21%. In April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 12.8% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate in March was 12.6%. Euro zone data: the final value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the euro zone recorded 46.7 in April, a four month low, with an initial value of 46.5 and a final value of 46.8 in March. In the first quarter of this year, the euro zone economy contracted for the sixth consecutive quarter, as the slight recovery of the German economy failed to make up for the impact of the recession in France and Italy. Data show that the initial quarterly rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro zone shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter, and is expected to shrink by 0.1%; The annual rate shrank by 1.0% and the expected rate shrank by 0.9%; In the fourth quarter of last year, the initial GDP of the euro zone shrank at a quarterly rate of 0.6% and an annual rate of 0.9%. After the quarterly adjustment in the first quarter, Germany's initial GDP rose by 0.1% and is expected to rise by 0.3%. The previous value was revised from a decline of 0.6% to a decline of 0.7%; After the adjustment of working days in the first quarter, the annual rate of the initial value of GDP fell by 1.4%, and the previous value was revised from an increase of 0.4% to an increase of 0.3%. France's GDP in the first quarter fell by 0.2% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the second consecutive quarter of contraction, as consumer spending and exports fell. Italy's GDP fell 0.5% month on month in the first quarter, the seventh consecutive quarterly contraction

(II) Bernanke: the Federal Reserve may slow down its bond purchase rate

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve (hereinafter referred to as the Fed), testified in Congress on the 22nd that if economic data continue to improve, the Federal Reserve may begin to withdraw from its monthly bond purchase program of US $85billion at one of the next few meetings. However, he warned market participants that even if the rate of bond purchase slows down a step, it does not mean that the Federal Reserve has embarked on a one-way exit from the easing policy. The minutes of the meeting released by the Federal Reserve on the same day showed that many Federal Reserve officials said they were willing to consider gradually reducing the scale of the quantitative easing program at the next monetary policy setting meeting on June 18 and 19 at the earliest, provided that the economic report showed sufficient evidence of strong and sustainable growth. This provides more details for the debate within the Federal Reserve about how and when to start reducing the scale of asset purchases. In June, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting. If investors' concerns about the Federal Reserve's discussion on slowing down the bond purchase plan at this meeting rise, or if the Federal Reserve does have such a discussion at this meeting, the financial market will be under pressure again

(III) in the later stage, the US dollar index may still have some room to rise.

influenced by the overall optimism of the US economic data and Bernanke's statement that the Federal Reserve may slow down its bond purchase, the US dollar index has risen sharply recently. After reaching the high point of 84.5, the US dollar index is currently adjusted. In the later stage, it is expected that the above two factors will continue to exert force, giving the US dollar index the ability to continue to move

III. industry analysis

(I) WBMs: the global aluminum market had an oversupply of 376500 tons in June

according to the latest report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs), the global aluminum market had an oversupply of 376500 tons in 2013. In 2012, the global aluminum market had an excess supply of 359700 tons. WBMs also reported that in 2013, the global demand for primary aluminum was 11.233 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In the same period, the global primary aluminum production can achieve stable loading and fluctuating load with sinusoidal and 3-angle waveforms. The loading capacity increases by 2.3% to 11.722 million tons

(II) the import volume of domestic bauxite reached a record high in April

according to the data of China Customs, the total import volume of China's bauxite in April was 6.7358 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.27% and a record high. Among them, the Indonesian mine was 4557300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.34% and a month on month increase of 34.91%. Australia's ore was 1330200 tons, an increase of 113.42% year-on-year and 70.0% month on month. It is certain that the cost of energy storage projects is very important by 6%. In addition, India imported 744000 tons of ore in April, while only about 50000 tons of Indian ore were imported in the same period last year. SMM believes that, on the one hand, Indonesian officials have not yet confirmed whether the raw ore export will be completely restricted in 2014. In order to prevent the risk of insufficient raw materials in the later stage, domestic alumina enterprises have increased the purchase of bauxite; On the other hand, since this year, new alumina production capacity has been put into operation in some domestic regions, and the demand for overseas ores has further increased, which has also stimulated the rapid increase in the total import volume of bauxite

(III) domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum oxide output maintained a rapid growth in March.

according to the news from the sub station of the economic operation regulation Bureau of the national development and Reform Commission, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 7.01 million tons in June, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.3% and a slowdown of 0.4%. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in June, the domestic alumina output was 13.843 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.4%, accelerating by 4.7 percentage points. In recent years, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum and alumina in China has been expanding continuously, so that their output has maintained a rapid growth

(IV) the domestic aluminum output in April once again set a new historical record

according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the domestic aluminum output in April was 3.257 million tons, an increase of 27.40% year-on-year, and once again set a new historical record. The output in March was 3.236 million tons. In recent years, the new capacity of domestic aluminum products has been expanding continuously. Since this year, the performance of domestic real estate and automobile markets has been better than that of the same period last year, boosting the output of aluminum products

IV. summary

from a macro perspective: most of the recent economic data released by China and the euro zone are weaker than expected, increasing investors' concern about the prospects for economic recovery in these two regions. Relatively speaking, the U.S. economy has advantages over other major economies in the world, but this may make the Federal Reserve slow down its bond purchase ahead of schedule. Pay close attention to the macro-economic data released in June and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting held on the th. If most of the economic data and U.S. manufacturing data released by China and Europe are still less than expected, or if investors are worried that the Federal Reserve will discuss slowing down the bond purchase plan at this interest rate meeting, and the Federal Reserve does have such a discussion at this meeting, the metal market will be under pressure. In terms of the industry, the short-term oversupply situation in the aluminum market is difficult to be significantly improved, and the aluminum inventory is still high, which still puts pressure on the aluminum price. On the whole, the aluminum price in June may still test the key support level below, with Lun aluminum supporting the line of $1800/ton and Shanghai aluminum supporting the line of $14500/ton

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